Examining the System-Wide Effect of Eliminating Bail in New York’s Suburban and Upstate Regions: A Controlled-Interrupted Time Series Study

• In Event: Evaluating the Impacts of Bail, Sentencing, and Pretrial Reforms in New York and Beyond

Abstract

In January 2020, New York implemented a bail reform law that limited judges' discretion to impose money bail for certain offenses. We employed a controlled-interrupted time series (CITS) design to assess the reform’s impact on pretrial and 2-year recidivism in New York’s Upstate regions. Leveraging the law’s offense-based eligibility criteria, defendants were separated into treatment and control groups. By comparing recidivism rates before and after the reform, as well as between the treatment and control groups, this allowed us to minimize confounding from concurrent changes. We examined the law’s effect on multiple recidivism measures, including any re-arrest, felony re-arrest, and violent felony re-arrest. Additionally, we conducted subgroup analyses focusing on high-risk defendants with recent criminal histories.

Author

• Stephen Koppel, Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ) at John Jay