What are the Long-Term Recidivism Impacts of New York’s Bail Reform? A Quasi-Experimental Test

• In Event: Evaluating the Impacts of Bail, Sentencing, and Pretrial Reforms in New York and Beyond

Abstract

New York’s bail reform made most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies subject to mandatory release and limited the use of bail for legally eligible cases. This study examines the long-term impact of these reforms on recidivism across all New York State counties. Focusing on the reform amendments that took effect in July 2020, we compare re-arrest rates of individuals released without bail post-reform to those of statistically similar individuals who faced bail or remand pre-reform. Using data from the New York State Office of Court Administration on cases arraigned between July and October 2019 (pre-reform) and the same period in 2020 (post-reform), we track recidivism for more than four years. We estimate effects on any re-arrest, felony re-arrest, and violent felony re-arrest, with subgroup analyses by charge severity and criminal history. Propensity score adjustments and inverse-probability weighting are used to reduce confounding. The findings provide timely, policy-relevant evidence on the long-term public safety impacts of bail reform in New York.

Author

• Rene Ropac, Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ) at John Jay