Pretrial Release Assessments in Action: How Well Do They Work?

• In Event: Pretrial Release Assessments & Bail

Abstract

Pretrial release assessments play an important role in promoting fair and equitable justice administration by using data to estimate a person’s risk of failing to appear at a scheduled court date. However, their effectiveness depends on maintaining strong predictive validity over time. This study evaluates the New York City Criminal Justice Agency’s (CJA) pretrial release assessment in its first five years of implementation. Results leverage data from over 200,000 prosecuted criminal court cases that were evaluated via pretrial release assessment and released into community prior to disposition. By comparing recent performance indicators to those from the release assessment’s initial development, we assess the tool’s consistency and validity in predicting pretrial outcomes. Additionally, we examine whether performance varies across demographic groups (i.e., race/ethnicity, sex) and charge severities, to ensure equitable decision-making in all instances of its use. Results indicate that the release assessment demonstrates strong predictive validity for failure to appear and recidivism, underscoring its overall utility in informing pretrial release decisions.

Authors

• Mary Katherine Kitzmiller, New York City Criminal Justice Agency

• Marian Gewirtz, New York City Criminal Justice Agency