Assessing the Effect of Probation on Recidivism in Virginia

• In Event: Evaluation of Probation Outcomes and Effectiveness

Abstract

There has been continuing interest among scholars, policy makers, and practitioners in the criminal justice system to comprehend the effect of probation on criminal justice outcomes, such as recidivism. While probation is now the most typical form of non-custodial punishment in lieu of incarceration, its effectiveness to rehabilitate offenders may vary, depending on factors like risk level of the offender, the quality of the supervision, and the availability of probation services. By utilizing the most recent data from Virginia’s Criminal Sentencing Guidelines and Court Case Management Systems from 2020 to 2025, this study examines the association between probation and recidivism from various angles. In particular, this study focuses on offense types, the seriousness of the offense, and the risk-levels of offenders. The study also tracks two distinct criminal justice outcomes: new criminal arrest and technical violations. The findings from this research are expected to enhance our comprehensive understanding of probation and reoffending in Virginia.

Authors

• Chang Beum Kwon, Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission

• Catherine Chen, Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission