Evaluating Community Violence Intervention in Louisville, KY: Using Synthetic Control Method

• In Event: Policy Panel: Race, Space, and Inequality

Abstract

Over the past five years, Louisville, Kentucky has faced a significant surge in gun violence, averaging over 100 gun-related homicides annually and nearly 640 shooting victims each year. Recognizing gun violence as a public health crisis, the city implemented a Community Violence Intervention (CVI) program. The CVI initiative focuses on reducing gun violence by deploying Violence Interventionists (VIs)-- credible messengers often from the affected neighborhoods—to mediate conflicts that could escalate into a gun violence incident. The purpose of the study is to investigate the extent to which the CVI project reduces gun violence. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), a synthetic control group is constructed by combining data from multiple regions that did not implement the intervention, creating a counterfactual scenario to estimate what would have occurred without the implementation of the CVI program. Data was sourced from the American Community Survey (ACS) to identify socio-demographic predictors of gun violence, ensuring that the synthetic control closely matches Louisville’s characteristics prior to the CVI implementation. Preliminary results will be discussed.

Authors

• Ivan Benitez, Office of Violence Prevention - Louisville Metro Government

• Cate Schanie, Office of Violence Prevention - Louisville Metro Government

• Jerome Williams, Office of Violence Prevention - Louisville Metro Government

• Claire Tallmon, Office of Violence Prevention- Louisville Metro Government