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Substantial resources have been dedicated to preventing adolescent substance use in the United States since the 1990s. These efforts stemmed from correlational research suggesting that early-onset alcohol and marijuana use lead to riskier behaviors and numerous adverse outcomes. Many prevention efforts tested through experimental programs have shown mixed results overall, and investigators have yet to examine the systemic impact of these nationwide initiatives over time.
This study uses a comprehensive dataset of approximately 250,000 surveys, collected bi-annually from 1991-2023 by the CDC from a nationally representative sample of 14- to 18-year-olds. This study first examines the relationship between substance use prevalence and time of first use to assess early onset, then assesses any temporal changes in substance use and whether these temporal changes influence other risky behaviors in adolescents, specifically, whether drug use precedes other risky behaviors as suggested by the "gateway" hypothesis. By understanding these connections, the study hopes to provide insights for more effective prevention and intervention strategies.