Predicting Fatal Outcomes: A Situational Analysis of Bias-Motivated Violence in America

• In Event: Examining Forms of Ideologically-Motivated Violence in America

Abstract

Although overall violent crime rates continue to decline, bias-motivated violence, including bias-related homicide, is rising in the United States. Criminologists have examined how situational factors—such as location, weapon use, and bystander presence—increase the likelihood of violence escalating to murder. However, it remains unclear whether these same factors similarly affect fatal outcomes in bias-motivated violence. This gap is notable given that prior research suggests bias-motivated violence differs situationally from other forms of violence. Guided by the situational crime prevention (SCP) perspective, the proposed study investigates whether victim vulnerability and other situational factors increase the likelihood that bias-motivated violence will result in homicide. The analysis draws on data from the Bias Homicide Database (BHDB), an open-source database documenting bias-related homicides and attempted homicides in the United States between 1990 and 2022. Using bivariate and multivariate analyses, this study compares the situational characteristics of bias-motivated homicides and attempted homicides. Findings will inform efforts to prevent bias-motivated violence as well as mitigate the harm to potential victims.

Authors

• Sophie Glick, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

• Jeff Gruenewald, University of Arkansas