The Local Politics of Mass Incarceration

• In Event: How Law, Politics, and Economy Shaped Mass Incarceration

Abstract

Prosecutors play a critical role in shaping incarceration trends, but how prosecutors’ party affiliation influences incarceration rates remains underexplored. This study examines the relationship between prosecutors’ party affiliation and county-level incarceration rates overall, as well as for racial, ethnic, and gender subgroups, leveraging newly available data on local prosecutor elections (1989–2014) and the Vera Institute of Justice’s Incarceration Trends dataset (1989–2018). Using state and election year fixed effects, models account for county demographic and economic conditions, urbanicity, and crime rates. The analysis estimates the effect of electing a Republican prosecutor on the jail population at the end of the prosecutor’s term and the cumulative prison admissions rate during the four-year term. Findings suggest Republican party affiliation is significantly associated with incarceration rates, though the magnitude of the relationship varies significantly by subgroup, state political context, and time period. This study contributes to scholarship on mass incarceration by expanding our understanding of how local political factors shape punishment.

Authors

• Jessica T. Simes, Boston University

• Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, Columbia University