Exploring Gender Disparities in Sentencing and Recidivism Risk: A Longitudinal Analysis Using NCRP Data

• In Event: Gender, Race, and Sentencing Outcomes

Abstract

This study examines longitudinal gender disparities in sentencing and recidivism risk over a 10-year period using data from the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP). The final sample includes 13,662 individuals in an East Coast state released before 2019 whose first prison admission occurred between 2009 and 2019. Women comprise 27% of the sample. Average sentence lengths declined over time, with men consistently receiving and serving longer sentences than women. A downward trend was also observed in the percentage of sentences served. In total, 3,003 individuals (22%) recidivated, with a slightly higher rate among women (23%) than men (21%). We further explore recidivism risk over time and possible predictors. Discrete-time survival analysis (N*T = 64,719) revealed a declining trend in recidivism risk over time, with significant interactions between time, gender, and release type (conditional vs. unconditional). For the conditional release group, men had higher recidivism risk in the first two years post-release, though the gender gap narrowed over time. For the unconditional release group, men's risk peaked at years 2 and 9, while women's risk declined steadily. Offense type, age at commitment, and time served in prison are significantly associated with recidivism risk.

Authors

• Sian Zhu, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Joshua S. Long, University of Massachusetts Lowell