Identifying Drivers of Prison Population Growth and Decline

• In Event: Downsizing Punishment: Institutional Closure and the Future of Incarceration

Abstract

This study examines the primary drivers influencing fluctuations in prison populations across the United States from 1980 to 2021, employing a comprehensive analysis of prison admissions, revocations, and time served using data from the restricted National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP). The research aims to disentangle the relative impact of changes in admissions for new convictions, variations in lengths of stay, and evolving revocation practices on overall prison population trends. State-level analyses will highlight differences across offense categories and severity, providing insights into the nuances of incarceration trends and facilitating comparative evaluations across jurisdictions. Findings from this phase will inform the development of evidence-based policies targeting efficient management of correctional populations and contribute to broader theoretical debates regarding the factors underpinning mass incarceration and its recent decline.

Authors

• Julia Laskorunsky, Robina Institute, University of Minnesota Law School

• Gerry Gaes, Florida State University

• Bill Rhodes, Formerly Abt Associates