Spatiotemporal Analysis of Lethal Violence in Areas on the Rural-Urban Continuum

• In Event: Advances in Rural Criminology II

Abstract

There is a general consensus that urban areas tend to have higher crime concentrations than rural ones. However, in some parts of the world, rural areas experience extreme levels of violence. This talk presents the findings of a study on lethal violence across the rural-urban continuum in Pernambuco, a northeastern Brazilian state, between 2017 and 2022. We first detail a descriptive analysis of crime types in rural areas having the urban as reference. Then, we analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of homicides and apply Binomial regression models to assess how the selected predictors influence lethal violence. The findings reveal that rural lethal violence in Pernambuco has a particular pattern mainly driven by interpersonal violence often committed by the usage of bladed weapons, shaped by routine activities, spatial dynamics and local cultural factors, especially in impoverished rural remote regions, where young men are disproportionately victimised. This study challenges the perception of rural areas as peaceful and provides detailed information on the regional and contextual factors shaping lethal violence in areas of the Global South.

Authors

• Duan Vilela Ferreira, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Brazil

• Vania Ceccato, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden

• Caroline Mota, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Brazil