Tech-novelty: Internet Adaptation and the Hastening of the Great Crime Drop

• In Event: Institutional Impacts on Crime and Deviance

Abstract

Although previous research has identified many factors contributing to the “Great Crime Drop,” the underlying causes have yet to be fully understood or quantified. Over a decade beginning in the mid-1990s, the national violent crime rate declined by over one-third, a pattern that scholars have attributed to an array of factors, including demographic shifts, changes in incarceration rates, drug market dynamics, and community-based interventions (Levitt and Dubner, 2005: 117–46; see also Blumstein and Wallman, 2000; Zimring, 2012). One limitation of this research is its failure to consider the effect of technology on the observed declines. Specifically, between 1995 and 2005, the proportion of American adults with regular home internet access grew exponentially, increasing nearly 400%. Using time-series techniques and annual data for metropolitan areas over the 1994–2004 period, we assess the impact of changes in internet usage on changes in violent crime rates. Preliminary analyses indicate that violent crime rates generally decreased as home internet usage increased in metropolitan areas. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that the broad reductions in violent crime during the initial years of the Great Crime Drop are partially attributable to the widespread adoption of this “novel” technology.

Authors

• Jacob Stowell, Northeastern University

• Jacob Balzarini, Northeastern University