Organized Crime Violence and Risks for Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border

• In Event: New Contexts, New Risk Factors: Examining Risks for Victimization

Abstract

This research analyzes how the governance of criminal organizations affects vulnerable populations, contributing to broader sociological debates on non-state actors and their impact on social order and migration. Specifically, it examines how the territorial conflicts among drug trafficking organizations along the U.S.-Mexico border escalate violence, thereby increasing the health hazards faced by undocumented migrants. This research employs a negative binomial mixed-effects model, difference-in-differences analysis, and unsupervised machine learning techniques using data from the EMIF survey, INEGI census data, and CBP enforcement records. The findings reveal that contested territories not only correlate with higher levels of violence but also significantly elevate the risks for migrants, particularly in eastern border regions where the lack of a dominant criminal organization exacerbates instability. This paper highlights the critical role of non-state actors in shaping migration experiences and advances our understanding of how the breakdown of criminal governance disproportionately affects vulnerable populations.

Author

• Oscar Contreras Velasco, University of Texas at El Paso