Poster #64 - Does First Arrest Change Perceptions of Arrest Risk? Evidence from a Matched Analysis of Youth

• In Event: ASC Poster Session II

Abstract

Deterrence theory posits that the certainty, severity, and swiftness of punishment reduce criminal behavior. Specific deterrence focuses on how direct experiences with sanctions shape future behavior by altering perceptions of risk. This study examines whether experiencing a first arrest during adolescence changes perceived risk of future arrest, a key mechanism of specific deterrence. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we apply propensity score matching (PSM) combined with a 2×2 difference-in-differences (DID) design to estimate the effect of first-time arrest on perceived sanction risk. Findings reveal no significant change in perceived arrest risk following a first arrest among the overall sample. However, subgroup analyses show a significant decrease in perceived risk among arrested females, while no effect is found among males. These results challenge the foundational assumption of specific deterrence that punishment leads to heightened sanction perception and suggest that deterrent effects are heterogeneous and gendered. Policy implications call for caution in relying on arrest-based deterrence strategies for youth, emphasizing the importance of tailored, developmentally informed interventions.

Author

• Sunmin Hong, The University of Texas at Dallas