Rethinking Risk: Addressing Bias, Accuracy, and Adaptability in Criminal Justice Risk-Need Assessments

Session Submission Type: Complete Thematic Panel

Abstract/Description

Decades ago, the criminal justice system embraced risk-need assessments as an innovative step toward evidence-based practice. Yet, despite gradual improvements in accuracy, utility, and fairness, challenges remain. Many tools struggle with limitations inherent in their design: they are often developed on a single sample and generalized across diverse jurisdictions, rely on static criminal history indicators, use uniform sets of criminogenic needs measures regardless of the stage of the justice process, and struggle to predict low base-rate outcomes. Consequently, practitioners and researchers cite concerns of bias, inaccuracy, and limited utility. This panel challenges conventional wisdom by showcasing research that rethinks the design and deployment of risk-need assessments—aiming to better reflect the diverse realities of justice-involved populations. Through four distinct studies, the panel investigates limitations in how risk-need assessments are developed, deployed, and perform. The research confronts the issue of “predictive shrinkage” — the loss of accuracy when tools are applied outside their original context — and explores integrating redemption and desistance literature into assessment design. It also identifies strategies for leveraging these tools to support community reintegration and improve predictions for low base-rate events. Addressing these issues challenges current practices and outlines pathways toward more precise, equitable, and adaptable policies.

Sub Unit

• Area VI. The Criminal Justice System / 49. Community Corrections

Individual Presentations

• Quantifying Miscalibration: Estimating the Impact of Demographic Differences on LS/CMI and ORAS Accuracy - John Michael Ursino, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Externally Revalidating the Adult Dynamic Validated Instrument for Sex Offense Recidivism (ADVISOR): Results from the Federal Bureau of Prisons - Grant Duwe, Minnesota Department of Corrections; Erik Faust, Federal Bureau of Prisons; Amy Grau, Federal Bureau of Prisons

• Recidivism and Redemption: Developing Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Criminal History - Zachary Hamilton, The University of Nebraska at Omaha; Jennifer Tostlebe, University of Nebraska Omaha; Alex Kigerl, The University of Nebraska at Omaha; John Michael Ursino, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Risk Score Comparison: Examining How Risk and Need Scores Shift During the First 18 Months of Reentry - Taylor Gonzales, University of Nebraska Omaha; John Michael Ursino, University of Nebraska Omaha; Zachary Hamilton, The University of Nebraska at Omaha

Chair

• Jennifer Tostlebe, University of Nebraska Omaha