Optimizing Patrol Time in Crime Hot Spots: Revisiting the “Koper Curve” Strategy After 30 Years - Sponsored by the Division of Policing

Session Submission Type: Complete Thematic Panel

Abstract/Description

This panel will feature presentations and discussion focused on the “Koper Curve” strategy of hot spots patrol, which emphasizes regular but unpredictable stops of 11-15 minutes at micro-place hot spots of crime and disorder. This strategy is based on Koper’s 1995 analysis of data from the landmark Minneapolis Preventive Patrol Experiment, which found that hot spot patrols were most effective—as measured by their residual deterrence aftereffect (i.e., the time to the next crime or disorder)—when they were approximately 11-15 minutes in duration. Drive-bys and shorter stops were less effective, and visits longer than 15 minutes yielded diminishing returns. This finding, commonly known as the Koper Curve, has had a substantial influence on subsequent research and practice, becoming a cornerstone of hot spot policing used by many agencies worldwide. This panel will feature studies that attempt to replicate the Koper Curve finding, evaluate its effectiveness in field studies, and facilitate its implementation and institutionalization.

Sub Unit

• Area VI. The Criminal Justice System / 43. Police Strategies, Interventions, and Evaluations

Individual Presentations

• Optimizing Patrol Time in Crime Hot Spots: Replicating the “Koper Curve” - Lester Wollman, SoundThinking; Christopher Koper, George Mason University; Simen Oestmo, SoundThinking

• Evaluating the Use of the “Koper Curve” Patrol Strategy in Practice - Christopher Koper, George Mason University; Kevin Petersen, University of North Carolina at Charlotte; Hyunji Lee, George Mason University

• Applying the Koper Curve for ‘Just Right’ Policing: Implementation Successes and Solutions - Lawrence William Sherman, University of Cambridge

Chair

• Lawrence William Sherman, University of Cambridge

Discussant

• Jerry Ratcliffe, University Pennsylvania

Organized by a Division or external group?

Sponsored by the Division of Policing