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Poster #78 - Household Bargaining and Desistance from Crime

Thu, Nov 19, 6:30 to 7:30pm, Adams Room - Posters 1 - 79 - 6th Floor

Abstract

Family formation is associated with sharp declines in men’s criminal activity, but the underlying mechanisms remain underexplored. This paper proposes and tests an intrahousehold bargaining mechanism of desistance. Entering a union, whether through cohabitation or marriage, brings otherwise unconstrained risky behaviors under joint decision-making. Partner disapproval creates demand for change, while bargaining power provides leverage to enforce it. Using individual-level panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) linked to gender-specific local labor demand shocks, I show that improvements in women’s relative labor market opportunities, used as a proxy for bargaining power, reduce their male partners’ likelihood of arrest. The largest declines occur among high-risk men paired with high-leverage female partners. The effects are at least as strong for cohabitation as for marriage, consistent with a bargaining-based mechanism of desistance rather than explanations based solely on selection into unions or identity change.

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