Poster #103 - ICE Arrests and the Effects on Latino Population Movement

• In Event: Poster Session II (posters 80 – 155)

Abstract

Introduction: The intensification of immigration enforcement across the U.S. interior has wide-reaching impacts for Latino immigrants and their communities. However, little is known about how visible methods of enforcement—specifically Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests—affect migration response, therefore shaping the demographic composition of local communities. This question is particularly relevant in the context of the U.S. South, with its mix of traditional and new immigrant destinations, and racialized history shaped by anti-Black racism that affects how the growing Latino population is received. Therefore, this study investigates whether ICE arrests in southern counties impact the size and proportion of the adult male Latino foreign-born population in those counties.
Methods: This study employs a Two-Way Fixed Effects model, allowing for both county and year fixed effects.
Results: Preliminary results indicate that counties with higher ICE arrests experience smaller increases in the foreign-born Latino population than counties with low or no arrests, suggesting suppressed growth.
Discussion: The perpetual uncertainty and fear created by ICE enforcement is weighed against traditional migration concerns—primarily labor market and social networks—likely creating constrained mobility. The preliminary results support this, indicating that increased immigration enforcement leads to suppressed growth of the foreign-born Latino population.

Author

• Savannah Dowden, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill