History and Support for Settlement of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

• In Event: Effects of Historical Legacies and Narratives on Contemporary Public Opinion in the Post-Communist Space

Abstract

How do historical narratives affect public preferences for settling international conflict? This study uses a pre-registered survey experiment of Ukrainians in unoccupied regions of the country in late May and early June 2022 to assess public support for ending Russia's 2022 invasion. History played a significant role in both sides' propaganda leading up to and during the war. Respondents were randomly assigned one of three primes about historical events: the UPA insurgency against the USSR, the Holodomor famine, and Ukrainian service in the Red Army during World War II and asked about their support for concessions to Russia, the possibility of military victory and who they blamed for the war. Respondents primed with the UPA insurgency were significantly less likely to support several substantive and territorial concessions. Respondents primed with Ukrainian service in the Red Army during World War II were, apart from some Russian speakers, not significantly more likely to make concessions and significantly more likely to blame the Russian government and the Russian people for the invasion. The treatment effects are infrequently conditional on family history, suggesting collective memories drive the results and underscoring the relevance of historical narratives in shaping public support for responses to foreign invasion.

Author

• Konstantin Ash, U of Central Florida