Will Russian Gas Come Back?: Assessing the Political Economy of Post-2022 Energy in Europe

• In Event: Global Responses to the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a landmark moment for Russian gas in Europe. Having built ties for about five decades, Russia’s exports of gas to Europe in 2023 were back to the levels witnessed in the mid-1970s. Suddenly, Russia has been downgraded from the main supplier to a marginal one.

Yet, Russia’s relative low costs for gas, and the presence of businesses and political actors willing to see a return to the status quo ante, makes it important to analyse the conditions that make the return of Russian gas more or less likely.

In this study, we apply a political economy framework to examine select countries in Eastern, Central and Southern Europe, and provide explanations about the divergent three responses that have emerged so far: maintain Russian gas imports, replace them with other sources of gas, and replace with renewable energy. The analytical focus of the paper is on two types of actors: companies and governments. For companies, we examine how sunk costs and announced investments foster/impede the potential return of Russian gas. For governments, we examine regulatory and institutional changes as well as political sunk costs that foster/impede prospects for Russian gas. The resulting heuristic allows classifying distinct political economy patterns exerting incentives or constraints to possibly resuming Russian gas imports in the future.

The paper will fill an important gap in academic literature by examining key structural, institutional, material and discursive constraints that shape European energy and climate policies.

Authors

• Adnan Vatansever, King's College London (UK)

• Andreas Goldthau, U of Erfurt (Germany)