Constructing (Dis)Trust: Depictions of Public Opinion Polls in Russian Independent Media

• In Event: Periodicals Unbound III: Periodicals as Mirrors: Seeing the Social

Abstract

In 2022, tensions increased around opinion polls in Russia, with many experts denying their reliability when it comes to estimating war support among the Russian population. Using a dataset of publications from the Russian Independent Media Archive, I explore the ongoing reassessment of survey research in Russia. I show how opinion polls are portrayed by different actors in and outside academia – scholars, journalists, and opposition figures. The methodological discussion about the reliability of polls intersects with the political discussion about how many Russians support the war. The latter question unfolds as both empirical and political at the same time, stimulating a conflict. E.g. if a poll shows the majority support the war, its opposers blame methodology for the unfavorable results, and vice versa. In media, polls are depicted as either trustworthy or not, depending on the results and the source they come from. I suggest that what is contested in debates around polls is not merely their reliability. Rather, by questioning poll results, speakers refuse to authorize a state-backed picture of Russian society where the majority supports the regime. Examining opinion polls in the context of the extreme event of the Russian war against Ukraine contributes to a revised approach to expertise on politically sensitive topics and its depiction in the media.

Author

• Arsenii Verkeev, Independent Scholar