EU Border Countries and the Ukraine War: Explaining Divergent Positions

• In Event: Global Responses to the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

In Europe the war in Ukraine has the most immediate impact on those countries that form the eastern border of the EU, namely those countries that border either Russia or Ukraine (the three Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Finland). The three Baltic states and Poland have been the staunchest supporters of Ukraine and strongest critics of Russian actions, and Finland changed its position on NATO membership due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. On the other end of the spectrum Hungary has been ambivalent in its support and has shown more openness to dialogue with Russia. Other countries, while showing strong support for Ukraine, may host skeptics of some EU policies, suggesting the possibilities of change in position. Reasons for differences in position include domestic political concerns, historic patterns of relations with Russia, economic vulnerabilities, and the direct impact of the war on the country. While the EU has to this point been able to effectively maintain a relatively united front on this issue, the potential for ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is high, and over time the differences between member state positions may increase. This paper seeks to unravel the impact of these various factors and consider how they may contribute both to potential tensions within the EU going forward and to the ability of Europe to develop a unified position regarding Russia and Ukraine’s EU accession.

Author

• Joan T. DeBardeleben, Carleton U (Canada)