Explaining Russian Support for the War in Ukraine: Cultivation or Coincidence?

• In Event: The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Ukrainian Society

Abstract

The February 2024 “Kremlin Leaks” indicate a Russian state-sponsored effort to create media that would generate support for both the government and the War in Ukraine. The effectiveness of this effort might not matter. George Gerbner’s 1969 cultivation theory asserts that media that paints the world as “mean” mainstreams a specific view of the world and depends on an us versus them dichotomy. Specifically, a “mean world” engenders cognitive shortcuts in users that garner support for defense against perceived threats, and a “strong man” or government who will protect it. This study posits that as state control of media and the severity of consequences for journalists within Russia has increased, the portrayal of a “mean world” on Russian television programming explains part of the effect of support for the War in Ukraine among Russian citizens. This study uses both Levada polling data and television viewing data with age as a proxy, modeling an OLS regression to identify that 4.1% of the effect of support for the war in Ukraine can be explained by cultivation theory and the perception of a mean world. It concludes that regardless of the effect of Kremlin-directed media propaganda, the prevalence of war, crime, and violent television shows on Russian television has already affected the Russian public’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Author

• Nicole Hash, Boston U