The Future for Democracy in the South Caucasus

Session Submission Type: Roundtable

Brief Description

Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have followed very different trajectories in the past three decades, as leaders have sought to navigate internal challenges and external threats to build peace and prosperity. Georgia still contends with Russia's annexation of its sovereign territory, and sustained efforts at borderization; Oil-rich Azerbaijan presents a case of the "resource curse" by which kleptocracy and authoritarianism can flourish; Armenia, historically at odds with Azerbaijan and Turkey, can no longer rely on Russia as guarantor of security, and now must contend with the consequences of Azerbaijan's successful military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. Between internationally sanctioned Russia, and assertive regional powers Turkey and Iran, the three countries are also dealing directly with new routes of international commerce, and with Russian relocation since the start of the Ukraine War: and with the threat of hybrid and/or proxy war. Especially following Georgian elections in Fall 2024, the panelists will discuss scenarios for the three countries, and the region, in the next decade.

Sub Unit

• International Relations, Security Studies, Foreign Policy

Chair

• Keith S. Brown, Arizona State U

Roundtable Members

• Stephen Francis Jones, Harvard U

• Jeffrey Mankoff, National Defense U

• Maureen Elizabeth Marshall, U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

• Anna Ohanyan, Stonehill College