The Anatomy of the Great Terror: A Quantitative Analysis of the 1937-38 Purges in the Red Army

• In Event: Political Institutions and Governance in Russia: Historical Perspectives on Elite Control, Property Rights, and Democratic Values

Abstract

For any dictator, elite purges are an instrument of power control. The elimination of the Red Army high command in Stalin’s Great Terror in 1937-38, one of the bloodiest episodes of elite repression in history, is a prime example of elite purges in authoritarian regimes. Using open and archival sources, we confirm that the Stalin’s purge was preemptive: the risk to be purged was higher for certain ethnic minorities, higher military ranks, and those with prior foreign contacts, but not for those who were network-connected to the purged leaders. The purges targeted most competent officers: controlling for other characteristics, the risk was much higher for younger cadres. As war-time promotions in 1941-1942 were inversely related to age, this is the first systematic evidence that the Great Terror directly impacted the disastrous Red Army performance early in WWII, and a confirmation that purges bring a significant efficiency loss for authoritarian regimes.

Authors

• Konstantin Sonin, U of Chicago

• Alexei Zakharov