Coercion Capital: Migrant Supply for Strategic Ends

• In Event: Migration and Indigeneity in the Russian Empire and the Post-Soviet Sphere: Geopolitical Migration Policies and Racialized Indigenous Populations

Abstract

The rise of hybrid warfare signals a world in transition, with migration emerging as an overlooked yet critical dimension in this shifting dynamic. While much of the existing discourse on migration focuses on state efforts to restrict movement, this paper argues that Belarus’s strategic facilitation of migration represents a new form of geopolitical coercion that other non-transit states may replicate, with significant implications for global stability. By lowering travel costs, simplifying visa processes, and promoting accessible routes, Belarus exploits European Union vulnerabilities, undermining its internal cohesion and destabilizing its neighborhood policies. Situating Belarus’s actions within Russia’s broader geopolitical objectives, the study illustrates how states adapt immigration policies to achieve foreign policy goals and examines the risks such tactics pose to sending states both domestically and internationally.
This paper introduces the concept of “recruitment” for weaponized migration, defined as a state’s proactive facilitation of migration flows to exert political pressure on a target country. Through a thick descriptive case study, the analysis identifies the conditions under which states engage in recruitment for weaponized migration. This research provides critical insights into the evolving role of migration in hybrid warfare and its broader implications for global stability.

Author

• Kyilah Terry, U of Pennsylvania