Sustaining Dissent: Emotional Shifts and the Persistence of #НетВойне Activism

• In Event: The International Spread and Influence of Russia’s War Propaganda

Abstract

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, digital activism has emerged as a key tool of resistance, despite increasing censorship and legal restrictions on anti-war speech. This study examines the evolution of emotional tone and engagement patterns in anti-war discourse by analyzing all tweets containing the hashtag #НетВойне from 2022 to 2024 (200 000 posts). Using advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, including sentiment analysis, temporal emotion tracking, and engagement modeling, this research explores how the rhetoric of opposition shifted across different phases of the invasion.
By integrating user metadata, tweet timestamps, and geolocational insights (where available), the study investigates whether public sentiment transitioned from initial outrage and defiance to resignation, fear, or adaptation in response to state repression. Additionally, network analysis and influence detection methods will assess the role of prominent figures, including journalists, activists, and exiled Russians, in sustaining visibility and mobilizing digital protest. The research also examines engagement trends, questioning whether online activism experienced a gradual decline or adapted to remain resilient in the face of increasing suppression.
This study contributes to the broader understanding of digital activism in authoritarian contexts, highlighting the interplay between censorship, emotional discourse, and the longevity of online resistance. By applying state-of-the-art computational methods to large-scale social media data, this research provides empirical insights into the evolving dynamics of dissent under digital authoritarianism.

Author

• Lanabi La Lova, London School of Economics and Political Science (UK)