International Support, the US Role, and Ukraine’s Determination to Defeat Russia: Evidence from Longitudinal Panel Surveys

• In Event: The Public Opinion Factor in US-Ukraine Relations

Abstract

To what extent has Ukrainians’ faith in winning the all-out war Russia started against their country in February 2022 depended on their perceptions of international military, economic, and diplomatic assistance to Ukraine and on their views of the United States? We examine this question using statistical analysis of panel survey data from the Longitudinal Study of War and Democracy in Ukraine tracking Ukrainians’ public opinion since November 2021 in six followup waves with sample replenishment in mid-2023 and mid-2024. Following a review of relevant literature, we will present the result of four sets of tests: (i) cross-sectional multivariate regression analyses of the relationship between perceived sufficiency of various forms of international assistance and belief in Ukraine’s war victory in each survey wave, with controls for alternative explanations (civic identity, language, war loss and trauma) and sociodemographic factors (income, age, sex, eduction, and region); (ii) longitudinal mixed model tests for the same variables estimating both within- and between-subject effects between survey waves during which international support levels changed significantly; and (iii) pre/post-treatment tests of the effects of 2024 presidential election using repeat respondents from 2-3 weeks before and after the election date; and (iv) longitudinal tests of the relationship between perceptions of the US and faith in war victory from the baseline in October 2024 to early/mid 2025.

Author

• Mikhail A. Alexseev, San Diego State U