The Public Opinion Factor in US-Ukraine Relations

Session Submission Type: Panel

Brief Description

The relationship between Ukraine and the United States has been one of the most important factors in the Russo-Ukrainian war, but the return of Donald Trump to the White House has called it into question. Engaging theories of popular international relations (the role of public opinion in foreign affairs), this panel features research on public opinion in the United States and Ukraine on their mutual relations during the critical period spanning the Biden and Trump administrations. Beginning with Ukrainian perspectives, Mikhail Alexseev and Serhiy Dembitskyi analyze data from a panel survey (that is, reinterviewing the same Ukrainians repeatedly) beginning before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to assess how beliefs about the nature and reliability of US assistance has shaped Ukrainians’ own beliefs about the war’s likely outcomes. Timothy Frye and Jordan Gans-Morse, drawing from a separate panel survey of Ukrainians that includes a survey experiment, examine how confidence in foreign aid impacts support for war termination in Ukraine. Henry Hale focuses on American attitudes to Ukraine, presenting survey and experimental evidence from the US that appeals to democratic values and international norms, but not immediate American security considerations, can sway Americans who are otherwise skeptical of sending military aid. A discussant who works at the intersection of academia and policy will offer comments that we anticipate being of interest for both theory and practice.

Sub Unit

• International Relations, Security Studies, Foreign Policy

Chair

• Uliana Movchan, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National U (Ukraine)

Papers

• International Support, the US Role, and Ukraine’s Determination to Defeat Russia: Evidence from Longitudinal Panel Surveys - Mikhail A. Alexseev, San Diego State U

• Aid Effectiveness and War Termination - Timothy M. Frye, Columbia U; Jordan Gans-Morse, Northwestern U

• What Wins American Support for Ukraine Aid: Values and Norms versus Economic Cost - Henry E. Hale, George Washington U

Discussant

• Melinda Haring, Razom for Ukraine