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Identifying International College Students at Risk of Academic Failure on the Basis of Their Demographic Characteristics and Academic Choices

Thu, March 12, 11:30am to 1:00pm, Washington Hilton, Floor: Concourse Level, Jefferson East

Abstract

Purposes of the paper
A significant number of international students at Ontario colleges of applied arts and technology (CAATs) do not fare as well as expected academically, and many withdraw from college because of poor academic performance. To prevent such outcomes, it is paramount to support international students at risk of academic failure. Research demonstrates that a well-designed program to improve students’ academic performance can have a significant positive effect on their success at college. But a support program will be most effective if international students at risk of academic failure are identified in an accurate and timely fashion. The main purpose of this research project was to evaluate the effectiveness of various factors that can be used to identify international college students at risk of academic failure and to use the factors to design a method for identifying such students before they start their college program.

Conceptual framework
Building on Tinto’s model of student departure, the author developed a conceptual framework based on two categories of factors – cognitive factors, such as high school grade point average (HSGPA), and non-cognitive factors, such as age, gender, country of origin, academic program, and use of an agent –and tested it on a sample of international students at a major Ontario CAAT.

Analytical methods, research design, or modes of inquiry
Participants
The 457 international students (226 women [49.5%] and 231 men [50.5%]) covered by this quantitative study represent 51 different countries and began their education in September 2012. All the students in the sample were new to the college, and their age varied between 17 and 45, with an average age of 23.2.

Research design
All 457 students were divided into two groups on the basis of their academic performance during the first semester. The 341 (74.6%) students who successfully completed their first semester were placed in the “Success” category; the 116 (25.4%) who did not were placed in the “Fail” category. Various characteristics (independent variables) of the students in the “Success” and “Fail” groups were compared and analyzed.

Dependent and independent variables
The dependent variable was the participants’ results (success/failure) after their first semester. Independent (predictor) variables included the students’ cognitive characteristics, such as their HSGPA, and non-cognitive factors, such as their age, gender, country of origin, academic program, and use of an agent.

Data sources
All student information was obtained from the college’s Automated Registration Information Electronic System (ARIES).

Results
The measures that were found to be the most potent predictors of academic success and failure are age, gender, type of academic program, and in some cases country of origin.
The study showed that the international students from 20 to 23 years of age were at significantly greater risk of failing their first semester than were their peers in the other age categories.
The failure rate among the women was significantly lower than that of the men.
Somewhat surprisingly, the students’ HSGPA was not as strong a predictor of academic success as was expected. In fact, the study showed that the many barriers to international students’ success are not strictly academic.
There were no major differences in the success and failure rates for the three major areas of study – arts, business, and technology. Even so, when student success is analyzed on the basis of program type (certificate, diploma, degree, and postgraduate certificate), differences become apparent, with students enrolled in three-year diploma programs and degree programs most likely to encounter academic challenges in their first semester.
In terms of country of origin, the Saudi students were by far the least successful group.

Significance of the study to the field of comparative or international education
Since 2000, the percentage of international students at Ontario colleges has increased by a dramatic 544%, with the most pronounced change having taken place in recent years. Even though such spectacular growth is a welcome development at a time when the number of domestic students is plummeting because of a demographic shift, it is worrisome that a significant number of international college students fail to complete their programs on time, and many even withdraw from college.
Very little research has been done in the area of international college student retention, especially in Ontario. The study helps deepen our understanding of the factors that contribute to international students’ academic underperformance. It also provides recommendations as to how colleges can better assist students at risk of academic failure as well as suggestions for further research.

Author