Returns and revolution? Educational attainment, earnings, and protests in Arab Economies

• In Event: Middle East SIG Highlighted Session:The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same? Education Across the MENA After the Uprisings

Abstract

• Objectives or purposes of the paper: Several observers have proposed that the 2010-11 protests of the Arab Spring were led by educated youth that were frustrated by labor market prospects. In this context, might it be the case that the investments young people made in their education did not result in any earnings or employment gain leading to unemployment, underemployment, frustration and political action? Put differently, are low returns to education partly responsible for the dramatic political and social change we observed in these economies during the period of study? In this presentation, we address three questions: (1) What are the returns to education in six Arab economies, and are these returns lower by worldwide standards? (2) Is there evidence of “over-education,” which has been linked with political unrest in various countries in recent history? (3) Are educational attainment and over-education associated with protest participation? We consider six Arab economies: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Tunisia and Yemen.

• Main perspective or theoretical/conceptual framework utilized: We use the neoclassical economic frameworks of human capital and over-education. We borrow from the political science and sociology literature on grievances and social movements to address the link between educational attainment, over-education, and protest participation.

• Analytical methods, research design, or modes of inquiry: We use multivariate regression techniques. For estimating the returns to education, we use ordinary least squares regression developed by labor economist Jacob Mincer; the dependent variable is the natural log of monthly wages, and the key explanatory variables are educational attainment (in years) and work experience (in years). For the analysis of over-education, we compare actual earnings with expected earnings based on various levels of education and experience; if actual earnings are substantially lower, we conclude that that individual is over-educated. Finally, we conduct a logistic regression protest with participation (yes/no) being regressed on educational attainment and over-education variables. Separate regressions are run for each economy.

• Data sources or evidence: The data come from the second round of the Arab Barometer project, which conducted nationally representative public opinion surveys during the years 2010 and 2011. We use the sub-samples of adult males aged 18 to 55 (a typical mandatory retirement age in the public sector) in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Tunisia and Yemen.

• Results and/or conclusions: We conclude that the returns to education are low in Arab economies compared to worldwide averages. We also find evidence of “over-education” and note that the highly educated are more likely to be unemployed rather than be part-time employed. Finally, we find a correlation between an individual’s educational attainment, over-education, and protest participation in Egypt but not in other countries.

• Significance of the study to the field of comparative or international education: The topics of educational returns, over-education, and protests have been addressed by numerous CIES scholars. Former CIES president Martin Carnoy is a pioneer in the field of comparative educational returns. The issue of over-education has most recently been addressed by former CIES President David Baker’s 2014 book, “The Schooled Society: The Educational Transformation of Global Culture.” The topic of protests has been covered in the comparative social movement literature.

Authors

• M. Najeeb Shafiq, University of Pittsburgh

• Anna Vignoles, University of Cambridge