Profiling the global supply of literacy skill: A model-based approach

• In Event: Better data for SDG 4: recent methodological developments

Proposal

Differences in average literacy scores have a profound impact on rates of growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and labour productivity over the long term (Weiderhold and Schwerdt, 2018). In addition, higher proportions of adults with low levels of literacy skill – conventionally Levels 1 and 2 – depress growth rates significantly. Importantly, the relative importance of literacy skill to growth rates appears to be increasing rapidly. Between 2003 and 2012 the impact in OECD countries has doubled.

There can be little argument that literacy skills are economically and socially important, a fact reflected in SDG target 4.6 that stipulates that all adults should possess adequate levels of literacy skill. Despite literacy’s importance, the overwhelming majority of countries rely on very unreliable proxies of skill, including years of education and self-assessments of skill. We believe that the lack of comparative global estimates impairs public policy formation and distorts investment decisions. More specifically, the inability to judge where skills are lowest and whether skills are improving at the expected rate leads to sub-optimal investment decisions on the part of bilateral and multilateral donors and lenders.

This paper draws upon work undertaken by the author on behalf of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. It explores whether the literacy data gap might be filled by producing model-based estimates that use the relationships between literacy skills and demographic characteristics observed in the background questionnaire of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). Although less reliable than the results of an actual assessment of literacy skills, the modelled estimates are significantly less expensive and more reliable than the proxies they replace.

Author

• T. Scott Murray, DataAngel Policy Research