The cost of achieving SDG 4 re-estimated in 2020

• In Event: Promoting the scale-up of equitable and quality ECE service provision through adequate resources mobilization and strong advocacy

Proposal

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have set an ambitious target for many countries: by 2030, all young people should be completing universal pre-primary, primary and secondary education of good quality. In 2015, the Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report team estimated that the cost of achieving the headline SDG 4 targets, that is, ensuring universal pre-primary, primary and secondary education by 2030 in low- and lower-middle-income countries, would cost a cumulative US$5.1 trillion, equivalent to about US$340 billion per year in 2015–2030. For pre-primary education, the target has assumed that all children will complete one year of pre-primary, thus a pre-primary gross enrolment ratio will gradually increase to reach 100% by 2030.

In 2020, the GEM Report team updated the data in the model and checked whether the assumptions made in 2015 had been proven accurate. The results indicated; however, progress towards SDG 4 targets had been slow and the annual costs are rising, if the goal is still to be achieved by 2030. Moreover, these financing gaps come at a moment when COVID-19 hit education systems in low- and middle-income countries. COVID-19 adds even more expense to the SDG ambition unless governments act quickly and invest wisely in order to avert the worst of the damage.

Between 2015 and 2020, before the onset of COVID-19, the cumulative financing need to achieve SDG 4 by 2030 in low- and lower-middle-income countries has remained the same, at just over US$5 trillion – but, given the shorter time horizon to achieve the targets, the annual financing need had increased from US$340 billion to US$504 billion. Out of the US$504 billion annual financing need, the updated estimate before the onset of COVID-19 was that US$356 billion would be covered by available domestic financing resources, increasing the annual financing gap from US$39 billion to US$148 billion, or from 12% to 29% of the total cost. The cost of universal one-year pre-primary is estimated at US $ 30 billion, accounting for 7% of the total cost. This is six times the pre-primary cost of 2012.

A notable factor account for the increased total financing gap relative to that estimated in 2015. Some important indicators such as the enrolment and completion indicators have only slightly increased since 2015, the same targets now need to be achieved not over 15 years but in a compressed 10-year timeframe. For example, while many countries did not improve their pupil/teacher ratios, overall convergence towards pupil/ teacher ratio targets has been faster than expected, which has had a considerable upward effect on unit costs. For example, the pupil/teacher ratio in pre-primary was 55% lower (14:1 compared to 31:1) in South Asia and 6% lower in sub-Saharan Africa.

This panel session will set the stage for SDG4 education costing exercises with a focus on pre-primary at the global level. It aims to discuss the model outcomes and financing policy implications on pre-primary education in low- and middle-income countries.

Author

• Yuki Murakami, UNESCO