The role of low learning in driving dropout: A longitudinal mixed methods study in four countries

• In Event: Mind the gap: understanding education inequality in developing countries

Proposal

While many causes of dropout are well known in the literature, little attention has been given to the role of low learning as a potential driver of dropout. Commonly cited reasons for school dropout, such as a child needing to work to support the household or a girl becoming pregnant, may actually represent the endpoint of a cumulative process in which low learning may play an appreciable role. As Branson, Hofmeyr, and Lam (2014) state about South Africa, “The reason given for dropout may only reflect the event or constraint that prompted the decision as opposed to the root cause of a longer-term problem”. We test the hypothesis that learning can be a root cause of this longer-term problem utilizing panel data from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam across two time periods that span critical dropout points. Utilizing IRT transformation to harmonize math scores across the four countries, we find that performing one standard deviation below the mean at age 8 is associated with a 53% increase in the odds of dropping out by age 12, and that scoring one standard deviation below the mean at age 12 is associated with a 49% increase in the odds of dropout by age 15. We further investigate the mechanisms by which low learning may affect dropout utilizing qualitative data from the same sample. From this analysis we find that low learning sometimes drives dropout directly, where children are failing and/or not learning in school and drop out. We also find that low learning may drive dropout by increasing susceptibility to and interacting with the proximate causes often cited in the dropout literature, such as labor force participation or pregnancy, making these outcomes, and resulting dropout, more likely.

Authors

• Danielle Sobol, Independent Consultant

• Michelle Kaffenberger, RISE Programme