Determinants of school choice before and during COVID-19: Evidence from Uganda's informal settlements

• In Event: Impact of COVID-19 on Education in Africa

Proposal

Education continuity was severely affected by the closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe (The World Bank et al., 2021). In Uganda, the effect was even more pronounced since the schools remained closed or partially closed for almost two years (22 months) (Datzberger et al., 2022). In a bid to protect the citizens against the proliferation of infections, Uganda like other countries applied various measures such as movement restrictions and adherence to COVID-19 protocols. These restrictions and measures affected households and institutions (including schools) alike (Alam & Tiwari, 2021; Niazi & Doorly, 2020; United Nations, 2020). Education provision within vulnerable populations in the urban informal settlements is one of the key challenges experienced in Ugandan spaces like Kampala and Mukono (The Republic of Uganda & UNICEF, 2017). According to Härmä et al. (2017), an estimated enrolment of 84% of primary schools in Kampala was in private schools (Härmä et al., 2017) most of which are low-cost private schools. As a result of the prolonged COVID-19 closure, some privately owned schools were forced to permanently close down since they depleted their finances that could have enabled them to stay afloat and meet certain expenses, e.g. payment of rent and teacher salaries (Alam & Tiwari, 2021; Gudel, 2022; Niazi & Doorly, 2020; Ssenkusu et al., 2022); these closures affected the forces of demand and supply upon full school reopening. In addition, the long period of closure of schools could have affected the children’s interest in learning and the predisposition of learners to engage in economic activities and unplanned pregnancies (Frimpong-Manso et al., 2022; Selbervik, 2020; The Republic of Uganda, 2022). These factors could be associated with increased dropout incidents and learner’s migration trends thus consequently affecting re-enrolment patterns and related choices of school upon full reopening.

Aim/Objectives:
In this paper, we assess the determinants of the type of school a learner was enrolled in before the closure of school due to COVID-19 and upon full school reopening in urban informal settlements of Uganda. We further assess the reasons for choosing a certain type of school and reasons for transfer among those who transferred learners upon initial full school reopening following COVID-19.

Methodology
This study utilizes cross-sectional data collected from informal urban settlements of Kampala and Mukono districts in Uganda targeting 2,062 children aged 6 to 18 years from 1,102 households whose data were collected during the period of closure due to COVID-19 (September-October 2021) and a subsample of 768 children from 536 households interviewed in a rapid household survey after full school reopening (in March 2022). This paper particularly focuses on the primary school level of study. Both descriptive and inferential statistics will be utilized to report the findings. A logistic regression model was fitted to determine which learner and household characteristics (such as age, sex, household hold size, socio-economic factors, etc.) are associated with the type of school chosen by a household. Logistic regression is suitable since our outcome variable is a binary variable of school type with a choice of private school assigned 1 and government school assigned a 0.

Results and policy implications
The results indicate that enrolment in private schools was 68.1% before the closure of schools due to COVID-19 and 2.1% of children were out of school. Upon initial full reopening of schools, the enrolment in private schools decreased to two-thirds (66.6%) and at the same time, 9% of children aged 6-18 years were not in school. The major reasons for choosing private schools before COVID-19 were school performance (35%) followed by distance/accessibility (32.6%), whereas upon school reopening major reasons for transfer of learners from one school to another were mostly due to cost (42.3%), next grade not available in the previously attended school (20%). Preliminary model results indicate that learner’s age, marital status of the household head, and distance/location are among the factors that are significantly associated with the type of school a child is enrolled in. Increased government investment in education aid among the private school players (especially targeting the low-cost private schools) who complement the provision of education within the urban informal settlements would be important to cushion the high cost of schooling for the households and prevent the schools from being permanently closed down.

Relevance to the CIES theme:

This paper is relevant to the theme of Education and Social Movements since children’s education was heavily affected by the closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic, also there were shifts/disruptions in household living and socio-economic activities due to the pandemic.

Authors

• Francis Maina Kiroro, African Population And Health Research Center

• Caroline Thiongo, African Population And Health Research Center