Who Is Expected to Pursue a Doctoral Degree? A Quantitative Analysis of 2021 Large-scale Chinese Institutional Data

• In Event: Poverty, Migration and Peace Building

Proposal

Abstract
This study aims to explore the various factors involved in pursuing a doctoral education. We adapted human and social capital theory as the theoretical framework to examine the different academic and economic factors involved in pursuing a doctoral degree, considering different institutional backgrounds. The data used were collected from the Graduate Student Satisfaction Survey conducted by the China Academic Degrees and Graduate Education magazine. We obtained the data from 12790 respondents in 2021. Descriptive statistics and HLM were used in the analysis. The results show that gender and family income affected students’ decision to pursue doctoral education. In addition, academic performance factors, such as the number of published papers, and education achievement satisfaction, had positive effects on application in doctoral education. Students in World-class construction universities were more likely to pursue a doctoral degree than those in Non-double first-class construction universities This study has implications for the demands of postgraduate students taking doctoral degrees.

The Ongoing Expansion of Doctoral Education
Around the world, doctoral education is evolving quickly, with an increase in student enrollment, program diversity, and delivery methods. As economies grow, there is an increasing need for more capable, knowledgeable, and competent individuals (Syverson, 1996).

The Frequent Interaction Between Doctoral Degrees, the Labor Market, and Salary
As an objective form of cultural capital, education is an important way for individuals to obtain social status. Bourdieu pointed out that cultural capital can improve its social status and transform cultural capital into economic capital. Research suggested that a doctoral degree has positive effects on the income situation (Mertens & Roebken, 2013).

Insufficient Attention Paid to the Choice of Doctoral Education
While the scope and importance of doctorate education have constantly increased, theoretically-based scholarly research has lagged far behind that provided for Bachelor’s (Mullen et al., 2003) and Master’s degree choice(Jung & Lee, 2019).

The Chinese Context
China has experienced a rapid massification of higher education since 1981, and the demand for graduate education has also risen over time. This clearly reflects the global trend in graduate education. Therefore, it is necessary to continue and broaden empirical research on the factors that affect people's decisions to pursue a doctorate education in China.

Theoretical Framework and Literature Review
Many early studies on college choice were based on Status-Attainment Model or economic model, then researchers combined a sociological theoretical framework with an economic perspective and further detailed studies by using sociological theories such as cultural capital and social capital. we employed the undergraduate college choice model (Perna, 2004). Different variables associated with pursuing higher education, have been explored to construct the variables in the present study. They include individual characteristics of students, family background and previous education achievement, and institutional characteristics.
First, demographic characteristics such as gender can affect students’ choices. For example, it has been suggested that the willingness of women to continue to study for a degree decreases with the improvement of education level. In particular, the proportion of women pursuing a doctoral degree is lower (Lin, 2011). Second, parents' education level is related to their children's doctoral admission (Mullen et al., 2003). Bachsleitner and his collaborator found that graduates from better-educated backgrounds were more likely to transfer to postgraduate programs, especially if they had at least one parent with a doctorate (Bachsleitner et al., 2018). Low-income women had an "urgent aspiration" for a doctoral degree (Nielsen, 2015). Third, academic performers at the Master level are important. Research suggested that acquiring graduate education is positively impacted by academic achievement (Kniola et al., 2012). In addition, the more satisfying the interactions with faculty members during the study, the more positive students are about continuing their education (Hanson et al., 2016). Finally, the decision to pursue a doctoral degree is related to institutional characteristics, As English and Umbach (2016) pointed out, the types of institutions in which students were enrolled during their first degree affected their access to a doctoral degree because they had different intellectual atmospheres and were exposed to advanced degrees and social networks.

Research Questions
Graduate school choice refers to the three-phase process of aspiration, application, and enrolment by which an individual determines to pursue a post-baccalaureate degree (English & Umbach, 2016). This study focuses on doctoral education application in China, where there has been a significant increase in doctoral education over the last 40 years. The aim is to analyze the effect factor of doctoral education application including individual and institutional. Based on the research purpose, we ask the following research questions:
(1) How does gender influence the likelihood of doctoral education application?
(2) To what extent does family background (parents’ education, family income) impact doctoral education application?
(3) How does academic performance impact application to doctoral education?
(4) To what extent does the Master's degree institution classification influence the doctoral education application?

Method
Data Source and Participants
The data used in this study were obtained from the National Graduate Student Satisfaction Survey in China. As one of the largest cross-sectional surveys of a representative sample of Graduate students in China, it provides extensive information on graduate educational experiences, gender, family background, academic performance, and educational background (Zhou et al., 2021). The grade-level selected is third-year master's. The final sample included 12790 master's students involved in 50 postgraduate institutions in China.

Analysis
Statistical software STATA 15 is employed for the analysis process and all tests were run with an alpha level of .05. First, we conducted two preliminary analyses including descriptive statistics of all variables. Given the two-level nature of the data, we employed hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis in Two consecutive models.

Conclusion and discussion
The results show that gender affected students’ decisions to pursue a doctoral degree. In addition, academic backgrounds, such as the number of papers published and education satisfaction with Master study had positive effects on doctoral education applications. In contrast, family income had negative effects on the decision. Finally, students from world-class construction universities were more likely to pursue doctoral education.

Authors

• Jingjing Niu

• Yu Xiao, Institute of Education, Tsinghua University