Mapping the cumulative effects of climate anomalies on children’s education in ten African countries

• In Event: Highlighted Session: Climate-induced disadvantage: The effect of extreme weather events and natural disasters on children’s educational outcomes in climate vulnerable countries

Proposal

Background. Climate change is an increasing concern to the global community, and the impact of climate change can have far-reaching consequences for future generations (UNICEF 2021). Sub-Saharan Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its predominantly low socio-economic levels, poor infrastructure, and high dependency on agriculture. African countries have already experienced changes in temperature, increased droughts, floods, and coastal erosion, along with changes to the natural environment including glacier melting, species extinction, and desertification. These impacts are projected to worsen as global temperatures continue to rise, disproportionately affecting the poorest and most vulnerable members of African societies (Hanna and Oliva 2016).

Research questions. We address three research questions in this study: (1) Will children's cumulative exposures to environmental hazards during early childhood or later in life have an impact on their educational attainment in low- and middle-income countries? (2) To what extent will the mother's education mitigate the impact of environmental hazards? (3) To which extent will environmental hazards be mitigated by household socioeconomic status?

Data. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS thereafter) are comparable nationally representative household surveys with large sample sizes. Since 1984, the DHS have collected data on vital statistics and a wide range of health indicators through more than 400 surveys in over 90 countries, most of which are middle- and low-income countries. The DHS have several advantages, including high response rates, nationwide coverage, high quality interviewer training, standardized data collecting processes across nations, and consistent content across time. These attributes facilitate for cross-sectional and cross-time comparison across populations. Monthly precipitation and temperature data starting from the year 2000 were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit-time series (CRU-TS) database.

Methods. For each cluster, a 20-year calendar of daily maximum temperature (collapsed into monthly average) and monthly precipitation was created. Consistent with well-established measures in the literature, we calculated z-scores to measure deviations from the 20-year (2000-2020) mean of daily maximum temperatures and precipitation around DHS clusters from the year the individual was born. A year with a z-score greater than 2 or less than -2 is characterized by anomalously high or low precipitation/temperature. We divided this annual measurement into months and matched the exact month of birth for each individual without assuming that children born in the same year have the same length of exposure. Cumulative exposure to climate hazard was calculated by summing up all the months experiencing abnormal precipitation and temperature from birth to the month of the DHS survey. To assess whether the timing of exposure matters, we also divided the total duration of exposure into two periods, early childhood and later in life. Furthermore, we interacted mothers’ education and family wealth index with climate anomaly measures, respectively, to estimate effect modifications—potentially mitigating effects—associated with mothers' education and family SES, after adjusting for a set of control variables.

Authors

• Sukie Xiuqi Yang, University of Pennsylvania

• Kai Feng