Is school absenteeism surging, and why? A global analysis and case studies of Japan and the United States

• In Event: Digital-age education implications on student mental health, absenteeism, and citizenship, in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

Proposal

Between 2020 and 2022, the number of school absenteeism in Japan has increased dramatically, increasing by approximately 1.5 times. It has been pointed out that losing the opportunity to receive school education due to school absenteeism not only lowers grades in the short term but also harms students’ educational attainment in the long term (Whitney and Liu, 2017). Therefore, increasing school absenteeism is a serious issue from the perspective of providing educational opportunities for children (Liu et al., 2021). A survey conducted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan pointed out that factors contributing to school absenteeism include bullying, delayed academic achievement, developmental disabilities, and inappropriate guidance from teachers, but these factors do not satisfactorily explain the recent rapid increase in school absenteeism, since these factors have not increased sharply in the two years from 2020.
Furthermore, the increase in school absenteeism is not unique to Japan; the United States and the United Kingdom have also seen an increase in the number of chronically absent students compared to the pre-pandemic period, suggesting the possibility that the increase in school absenteeism after the COVID-19 is a global phenomenon. The reasons for the rapid increase in school absenteeism are also being analyzed in the United States. On the other hand, in the United States, areas where many schools provided online education due to the COVID-19 pandemic tended to have higher rates of school absenteeism, suggesting that there may be some relationship between the closure of schools and the accompanying implementation of online education, and the increase in school absenteeism (Dee, 2023).
This study aims to address whether the increase in school absenteeism after the pandemic is a worldwide phenomenon and what characteristics (e.g., differences by region, economic status, race) exist in countries where school absenteeism is increasing, using macro data for each country, while keeping in mind that the definition of school absenteeism is different in each country. This analysis will also consider the extent to which school closures and online education due to the pandemic were implemented in each country. Then, (2) I will quantitatively analyze the causes of the recent increase in school absenteeism in specific areas using microdata. I will research the situation of school absenteeism in California because I can use detailed data (including attendance data) and because school absenteeism has surged after the pandemic.
The increase in school absenteeism after the pandemic is a globally observed phenomenon, and the increase is particularly obvious in countries and regions where the transition to online education has been encouraged. This is consistent with the results of my interviews with municipal governments in Japan. Furthermore, doubts about the quality of education may also change parents' and students' attitudes toward schools. Finally, I would like to present policy implications, considering that Bettinger et al. (2022) show that the effectiveness of online education is reduced. [References available by request]

Author

• Yuta Meguro, stanford university