Unpacking the Black Box of First-Year College Attainment: Evidence from a Flagship Regional University in Chile

• In Event: Global Perspectives on Student Outcomes: Democratic Engagement, Academic Attainment, and Digital Challenges

Proposal

This study examines the factors influencing first-year college student success at a flagship regional university in Chile, focusing on academic progression and first-to-second year retention. Despite successful efforts to expand access to higher education in Chile since the 1990s (Brunner & Ferrada Hurtado, 2011), retention and degree completion remain pressing challenges. Approximately 50% of students in Latin America, including Chile, drop out during their first year of college (Ferreyra et al., 2017). This high attrition rate may be attributed to students transitioning from under-resourced secondary schools that inadequately prepare them for higher education's demands. The lack of college readiness stems from broader issues of economic inequality and uneven access to quality schooling opportunities across the region (Cruces, Domench & Gasparini, 2014).
Chile's higher education system has undergone significant changes in recent years, particularly with the implementation of national tuition-free access efforts (Llona, Bonvallet, & Rojas, 2023). The sweeping abolition of undergraduate tuition fees, initiated in 2016, was initially available to qualified students from families in the bottom half of the income distribution. In 2018, this policy expanded to include students from the 6th national income decile, extending accessibility to working and lower-middle class economic brackets (Espinoza et al., 2023). However, the tuition-free college mandate carries rigid timely completion requirements, charging students who exceed the program's nominal duration (Paez, 2022). This requirement is particularly burdensome for disadvantaged students who enter higher education academically underprepared and unfamiliar with the collegiate environment. Recent studies have found that the free-tuition policy has not significantly increased college student persistence to the second year (Clasing, 2022). Espinoza et al. (2023) discovered that among lower-income students, those funded through broad-based tuition-free access grants showed lower first-to-second-year persistence rates compared to peers with merit scholarships or loans.
To investigate these issues, our study utilizes administrative data and mixed-effects regression modeling to analyze the relationships between individual-level characteristics and students' likelihood of passing all courses and persisting to the second year. We examine various factors, including gender, high school background, admission type, and geographical distance from campus. This study leverages a robust dataset of over 13,000 observations from 6 pre-pandemic first-year student cohorts at the University of Atacama in Chile. This comprehensive database was obtained through ongoing collaboration with the Unit of Institutional Research at the University of Atacama and is at the disposal of the researchers to enable high-quality applied analysis. Student attributes included demographic factors as well as pre-college data such as years since high school graduation. Students’ high school information before matriculation was added using an administrative dataset provided by the Ministry of Education of Chile and linked to the University of Atacama institutional records based on individual identifiers. This allowed the inclusion of academic history before postsecondary enrollment such as high school graduation timing as well as other pre-college controls.
Student attributes included demographic factors as well as pre-college data such as years since high school graduation. Students' high school information before matriculation was added using an administrative dataset provided by the Ministry of Education of Chile and linked to the University of Atacama institutional records based on individual identifiers. This allowed the inclusion of academic history before postsecondary enrollment such as high school graduation timing as well as other pre-college controls.
Our analysis reveals significant disparities in academic progression and retention based on several factors. Notably, the factors influencing academic progression and retention are not always aligned, and the timing of academic progress is crucial. Specific progression metrics emerge as important predictors of retention. Higher GPAs and passing all courses, particularly in the Fall term, significantly increase the likelihood of retention. Conversely, taking a semester off in the Spring drastically reduces retention chances. Interestingly, students who delay entry after high school perform better academically and have higher retention rates. Regarding Chile's free college tuition policy, we find that it positively affects retention but does not significantly influence academic progression. These findings underscore the critical role of early academic success in fostering student persistence (Tinto, 1993) and highlight the need for targeted interventions to support struggling students in their first year.
The results of this study have important implications for higher education policy and practice in Chile. Institutions should implement targeted support programs for male students, first-generation students, and those living far from campus to mitigate the challenges these groups face in terms of academic performance and retention. The strong influence of private voucher high schools on student success suggests that policymakers should examine the practices and resources of these schools to identify strategies that could be adapted to improve outcomes in public schools.
Given the timeliness of potential interventions and the high association of progression metrics and retention, focusing on students not passing all their courses during the fall term appears to be the most effective strategy. It is crucial to better understand the determinants of students taking the spring term off, as their likelihood of not returning for their second year decreases by a significant 41 percentage point margin. Institutions should provide robust academic support services, particularly during the first year of college. Strategies such as early alert systems, proactive advising, and peer mentoring programs can help identify and assist struggling students before they fall too far behind (Habley, Bloom, & Robbins, 2012). Furthermore, given the recent expansion of financial aid programs in Chile (Espinoza et al., 2023), institutions must ensure that these resources effectively support student success and retention.
In conclusion, this study challenges the notion that the freshman year can be treated as a singular, uniform experience. Our findings underscore the need for a nuanced approach to understanding first-year attainment and highlight the importance of targeted, time-sensitive interventions that address the unique challenges students face at different stages of their academic journey. By disaggregating first-year college outcomes and considering the distinct challenges faced by different student subgroups, institutions and policymakers can develop more effective strategies to support student success and improve retention rates in Chile's higher education system.

Author

• Eduardo Felipe Santander, Columbia University Teachers College