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Friends play a crucial role in shaping adolescents' educational expectations, as adolescents often conform to their peers by aligning attitudes, interests, and beliefs (Laursen, 2021). While the influence of peer groups has been well-documented since Coleman (1961), the mechanism through which peer interactions affect student educational expectations—particularly in the digitalized, post-pandemic world—remains underexplored. Digital communication, amplified by social media usage and the global pandemic, has diversified and intensified adolescent peer interactions, highlighting the need to reassess their impact.
This study examined and compared whether the number of friends or frequency of interactions with friends, either online or offline, could predict students' expectations for completing a bachelor’s degree or higher. Using data from the 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in Hong Kong (N=3,916), this study found that 73.65% of the students expected to complete a bachelor’s degree or higher. Those without such expectations are more likely to be male, from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, and have lower performance scores. Their parents also tend to have lower educational levels, lower expectations for their children's educational attainment and are less likely to accept all their friends. Regarding peer interactions, these students typically have fewer friends, hang out more after school, and contact their friends digitally less often.
Logistic regression analysis further revealed that each additional close friend increases the odds of having college completion expectations by 2.8%, controlling for student and parental-level factors such as gender, socioeconomic status, performance score, and parental expectation. Frequent digital contact with peers significantly predicts the increase in the odds of having college completion expectations, with daily digital interactions increasing the likelihood by a factor of 1.479, and multiple daily contacts by 1.592. In contrast, after-school hangouts do not significantly predict college expectations when other factors are controlled.
These findings suggest that, in a high-achieving culture like Hong Kong, adding to the formula of challenges for students with lower aspirations are the fewer friends they have and less frequent peer interactions through digital means, when compared to their peers of similar family backgrounds and academic performances. The findings underscore the significant role of digital peer interactions in shaping educational aspirations. They also necessitate further investigations on whether and how different information is communicated through after-school hangouts versus through social media and messages, and how that affects youth culture and educational expectations. Educators and policymakers must consider these dynamics to effectively develop strategies that could enhance adolescent academic motivation and aspirations.