Enrollment and Graduation Trends Across Mission‐Driven Institutional Types in the U.S: A Comparative Analysis of Rural vs. Urban Public Colleges

• In Event: A Comparative Perspective of Internationalization and University Mission

Proposal

Introduction
Over the past decade, U.S. public higher education has been shaped by two converging forces: shifts in federal need-based aid and evolving accountability frameworks influenced by K–12 systems (Deming & Figlio, 2016). The Pell Grant, the primary funding source for low-income undergraduates, has seen changes in appropriations and recipient counts that produced uneven effects across institutional types and locations. While flagship and large urban universities have largely sustained or grown enrollments, many small and medium-sized rural institutions have faced steep declines in Pell funding and undergraduate headcounts. Between 2010–11 and 2022–23, rural public universities experienced a 32% decline in Pell allocations, accompanied by an 8% decrease in enrollment. This disparity threatens equitable aid distribution and degree completion in underserved areas. Prior research shows that a $1,000 increase in grant aid raises six-year graduation rates by 1–2 percentage points (Nguyen, Kramer, & Evans, 2019; Lasota, 2022). However, Pell’s long-term impact across NCES locale categories —Rural Small, Rural Medium, Rural Large, Suburban, and Urban —remains underexplored.

Objectives
The main objective of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of rural and urban public colleges using the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) data, mapping enrollment and graduation trends across mission‐driven institutional types in the US. The following specific objectives will be achieved:
1. Comparing enrollment and graduation‐rate trajectories for mission-driven public institutions using IPEDS data.
2. Quantify the association between Pell Grant changes and both enrollment and graduation outcomes, controlling for institutional size and region.
3. Generate policy-relevant insights on targeting federal and state financial aid interventions to bolster access and completion in rural settings.

Theoretical Framework
Human Capital Theory (Becker, 1964) frames Pell Grants as investments in education that generate long-term economic returns, particularly for low-income students. Resource Dependence Theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978) emphasizes how institutional type and mission shape strategic responses to external funding, influencing how colleges leverage Pell support. Finally, accountability theory (Deming & Figlio, 2016) highlights the role of transparent, outcomes-based evaluation, drawing on K–12 accountability models in shaping how aid impacts enrollment and persistence. Together, these lenses position Pell policy not only as financial aid but as part of an interdependent system connecting policy inputs, institutional behavior, student choices, and educational outcomes.

Conceptual Model
Using Figure 1, we illustrate the conceptual model that links Pell-grant dynamics to enrollment and graduation outcomes, which are mediated by institutional mission/locale, and moderated by regional context. The study's conceptual approach looks at the dynamic interactions between performance outcomes in public higher education, contextual modifiers, student-level financial aid, institutional characteristics, and federal policy initiatives. The goal of the model is to comprehend how these variables interact to influence enrollment and graduation trends in both urban and rural areas of the United States across various mission-driven institutional types. The framework's foundation is the policy input, particularly the yearly fluctuations in Pell Grant funding and the corresponding recipient count.

Methods
A panel regression model is employed to control for time-invariant institutional characteristics while estimating the influence of Pell Grant trends and contextual variables on fall enrollment headcounts and six-year graduation rates. Supplementary descriptive analyses and trend visualizations illustrate disparities across institutional types and geographic categories. The dataset integrates IPEDS institutional characteristics and completions files with Pell Grant funding and recipient data, yielding a longitudinal panel of public colleges.

Data Sources
The primary data source is the IPEDS, which provides comprehensive, federally mandated institutional-level data on finance, enrollment, completions, and student aid. Additional contextual data on state grant programs, broadband access, and local labor market conditions are drawn from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This integration allows for a nuanced modeling of how broader economic and infrastructural factors intersect with institutional and policy variables.

Results
Preliminary results indicate substantial geographic and mission‐based variation in how changes to Pell Grant funding influence institutional performance. Rural small and medium institutions experienced the steepest declines in Pell Grant funding between 2010–11 and 2022–23 (−49% and −43% respectively), corresponding with notable decreases in both enrollment and graduation rates. In contrast, urban institutions displayed greater resilience, with smaller funding declines (−11%) and relatively stable enrollment patterns. The regression results suggest that each 10% reduction in Pell Grant funding is associated with a statistically significant decrease in enrollment at rural institutions, while the effect in urban contexts is smaller and statistically insignificant. Graduation rates also appear more sensitive to Pell Grant fluctuations in rural institutions, indicating a compounded disadvantage that may exacerbate educational inequities over time.

Scholarly Significance of the Study
This study makes several contributions to the scholarly discourse on higher education finance and equity. First, it extends the Pell Grant literature by explicitly examining the intersection of policy changes with institutional mission and geography, dimensions that are often overlooked in aggregate analyses. Second, the findings highlight the structural vulnerabilities of rural institutions, which face compounded challenges from declining federal aid, limited tuition revenue capacity, and inadequate local economic support. Third, by integrating human capital and resource dependence perspectives, the study advances a more comprehensive conceptual framework that accounts for both student-level and institutional-level responses to shifts in financial aid policy. Finally, the comparative approach provides policymakers with practical insights for developing targeted interventions that acknowledge the heterogeneity of institutional contexts within U.S. higher education.
This research also speaks directly to ongoing policy debates on Pell Grant adequacy and targeting, particularly proposals to expand eligibility to incarcerated students and reinstate year‐round benefits.

References
Deming, D. J., & Figlio, D. (2016). Accountability in US education: Applying lessons from K–12 experience to higher education. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(3), 33-56. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.3.33.

Lasota, R. R. (2022). The effect of need-based grants on college persistence and completion. Research in Higher Education, 63(5), 667–692. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-021-09659-1.

Nguyen, T. D., Kramer, J. W., & Evans, B. J. (2019). The effects of grant aid on student persistence and degree attainment: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the causal evidence. Review of Educational Research, 89(6), 831–874. https://doi.org/10.3102/0034654319877156.

Pfeffer, J., & Salancik, G. R. (1978). The external control of organizations: A resource dependence perspective. Harper & Row.

Authors

• MOSES OLADELE OGUNNIRAN., UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA

• Nathaniel Bray, University of Alabama