Quantifying Loss and Damage to Education in East and Southern Africa – Building the Case for Climate-Resilient Financing

• In Event: Climate, Education, and Peace: Financing Resilience in a Warming World

Proposal

Education in East and Southern Africa is already bearing the costs of a warming world. Since 2005, climate-related disasters such as floods, cyclones, and droughts have damaged schools, destroyed learning materials, displaced teachers, and forced millions of children into prolonged periods of disrupted learning. These shocks carry steep economic costs: rebuilding infrastructure, establishing temporary classrooms, and replacing lost assets place additional strain on already underfunded systems. The burden falls hardest on marginalised learners, particularly girls, who face increased risks of dropout, child marriage, and exclusion as household vulnerabilities intensify.

Despite the scale of the challenge, education remains largely invisible in climate finance. Less than 1.5% of adaptation and resilience funding currently supports the sector, and education is rarely referenced in Loss and Damage (L&D) negotiations. To close this evidence gap, the authors are conducting the first systematic assessment of the direct economic L&D to education across 21 countries in East and Southern Africa. The study quantifies the costs of climate-induced damage to infrastructure and materials, projects future losses to 2050 under varying climate scenarios, and provides high-level estimates of lost future income linked to interrupted schooling.

Methodologically, the research integrates data from EM-DAT disaster records, post-disaster needs assessments, and attribution studies, complemented by extrapolation models to fill data gaps. It applies a scenario-based approach to capture uncertainty and generate accessible, communicable cost estimates. Country case studies add qualitative depth, highlighting how governments and communities have adapted education delivery after climate shocks and where financing gaps persist.

By generating robust, evidence-based costings, this research aims to strengthen advocacy for integrating education into L&D financing, climate adaptation funds, and cross-sectoral risk financing. It demonstrates that protecting education is not only a developmental imperative but also a cost-effective investment in resilience, equity, and climate justice for children in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.

Author

• Charlie Habershon, Dalberg Advisors