Diverging Paths: A Longitudinal Analysis of High School Tracking and Occupational Expectation Trajectories in South Korea

• In Event: Highlighted Session: Family, School, and Intergenerational Pathways: Educational Trajectories from Schooling to Early Careers in East Asia

Proposal

Objectives. Adolescence is a critical transitional period where individuals develop skills and expectations, explore career-related interests, and identify future career paths (Erikson, 1968; Sewell et al., 1969; Staff et al., 2010). These occupational aspirations serve as crucial precursors to later socioeconomic attainment (Beal & Crockett, 2010; Schoon & Parsons, 2002; Sewell & Hauser, 1975). They are shaped by family socioeconomic status (SES) and the institutional structures of educational systems (Lee & Byun, 2019; Lee & Rojewski, 2012). While extensive research has examined the relationship between educational tracking and various outcomes such as educational aspirations and achievement (Buchmann & Dalton, 2002; Lucas, 1999), less is known about how students’ occupational expectations are recalibrated across key institutional transitions. Furthermore, prior studies have often relied on cross-sectional data, limiting our understanding of how occupational expectations change over time (e.g., Arita, 2005; Byun et al., 2024). South Korea (hereafter Korea) presents a compelling context, given its highly standardized yet stratified secondary education system, where students are sorted into academic or vocational tracks at the end of middle school. The academic track includes various types of general, autonomous, specialized high schools preparing students for university, while the vocational track consists of technical and vocational schools focused on workforce preparation (Byun et al., 2024; Lim & Park, 2022; Park, 2008). This transition represents a critical juncture that may alter students’ future outlooks. Therefore, this study examines the developmental trajectories of adolescents’ occupational expectations as they transition from middle to high school and seeks to understand the extent to which the institutional mechanism of school tracking influences the evolution of these expectations.

Theoretical Framework. This study is grounded in the Wisconsin status attainment model, emphasizing how family background and significant others’ influence shape educational and occupational aspirations (Sewell et al., 1969). The model demonstrates that aspirations mediate between social origins and eventual attainment, with significant others—including parents, teachers, and peers—playing key roles in shaping these expectations. Subsequent research has further documented systematic differences in aspirations across socioeconomic backgrounds, showing how students from different social origins are exposed to varying levels of encouragement, resources, and opportunity structures (Beal & Crockett, 2010; Lareau, 2003; Schoon & Parsons, 2002). Building on this foundation, this study extends the framework by conceptualizing school tracking as an institutional force that creates differentiated institutional contexts with distinct academic expectations and peer influences (Buchmann & Dalton, 2002; Lucas, 1999; Oakes, 1985). These institutional arrangements may reinforce existing inequalities by channeling students into distinct pathways with divergent outcomes. Drawing on developmental theories, this study recognizes that occupational expectations are particularly malleable during adolescence and responsive to environmental changes during institutional transitions (Gottfredson, 1981; Super, 1990). These theoretical perspectives inform the current examination of how Korean adolescents’ occupational expectations change during the critical educational transition.

Methods. This study uses data from the 3rd to 6th waves of the Korean Education Longitudinal Study of 2013 (KELS 2013), a nationally representative panel study tracking approximately 7,300 students from 5th grade through their transition into secondary education and beyond. The final analytic sample consists of 5,377 students from 1,567 schools participating in all four waves. The time variable was coded from 0 (7th grade) to 3 (10th grade). The dependent variable, expected occupational status, was measured annually from 7th to 10th grade using an open-ended question about students’ expected adult job. Responses were coded using the four-digit International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) and then mapped to the International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI), which measures the prestige of occupations (Ganzeboom, DeGraaf, & Treiman, 1992). The resulting ISEI score is continuous, ranging from 10 to 90. To examine the effect of tracking, this study employs both Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to map individual growth trajectories and Fixed-Effects panel models for causal estimation by controlling for time-invariant characteristics. Models include covariates for gender, family SES, prior academic achievement and educational aspirations measured before the transition to high school.

Results. Both analytical approaches provide consistent findings. On average, students’ occupational expectations showed a slight downward trend over the four years (b = -0.30 points per year, p < .05), declining by approximately 1.2 ISEI points from 7th to 10th grade. The HLM results show that students destined for the vocational track already started with significantly lower occupational expectations in 7th grade than their peers in the general academic track (b = -2.98, p < .001). The models further indicate that the trajectories of occupational expectations diverge significantly by high school tracks. Students in the academic track generally showed relatively stable or modest declines in occupational expectations. Students in general high schools (baseline group) experienced a statistically significant decline over time (b = -0.22, p < .05), while students attending autonomous and special purpose high schools showed no significant additional changes compared to the general high school (b = 0.23 and b = 0.11, respectively; p > .05). Notably, students in the vocational track showed a much steeper and highly significant decline over time. The interaction coefficient (b = -0.77, p < .01) indicates that vocational students experienced an additional 0.77-point decline per year compared to their peers in general high schools, resulting in a total annual decline of 0.99 points for vocational track students. The Fixed-Effects model supports this finding. Specifically, it shows that a marginally significant negative interaction first emerged in 9th grade (Time=2), suggesting that students adjust their expectations even before the formal transition (b = -0.43, p=.053). This effect then became highly significant in 10th grade (Time=3) after the transition (b = -0.65, p<.01), once students were formally placed within their new school track.

Scholarly Significance. This study contributes to the literature on educational stratification by providing robust longitudinal evidence that the influence of school tracking extends beyond determining initial starting points to systematically differentiating developmental trajectories. By employing both hierarchical linear modeling and fixed-effects estimation, findings demonstrate that the divergence in occupational expectations is not merely a reflection of pre-existing inequalities but emerges through the institutional structure of the education system itself.

Author

• Suyoung Park, Pennsylvania State University