Life-course influences of poverty on violence and homicide: 30-year prospective birth cohort study in Brazil

• In Event: Social Explanations to Violent Crimes

Abstract

BACKGROUND. Homicide is the leading cause of death among young people in Latin America, but little longitudinal research on violence has been conducted in that region. Ecological and retrospective studies show poverty characterises both high homicide areas and experiences of violent offenders. Different criminological theories emphasise the influence of exposure to poverty either early in childhood or between adolescence and the transition to adulthood. However, only one prior longitudinal study worldwide (in Pittsburgh, USA) has examined prospective risk factors for homicide, and no prior study has investigated whether poverty at different stages of the life-course has specific effects on violence. METHODS. In a prospective birth cohort study following 5,914 children born in 1982 in Pelotas city, Brazil, we examine the role of poverty measured at birth, in early childhood and in early adulthood on violence and homicide perpetration. Criminal record searches were used to identify violent and homicide offenders up to age 30 years. A novel Structured Life Course Modelling Approach (SLCMA) with logistic regression was applied to test competing life-course hypotheses about “accumulation of risk”, “sensitive periods”, and “downward mobility” regarding the influence of poverty on violence and homicide. RESULTS. There was strong evidence that violence and homicide were most strongly influenced by a combination of both cumulative poverty and poverty in early adulthood. The hypothesis that early life is a sensitive period for the influence of poverty on later violence was not supported. Results were replicable using different definitions of poverty and quite similar using an alternative outcome of self-reported fights. CONCLUSION. In Brazil, cumulative poverty is a significant driver of violence and homicide. However, poverty in early adulthood is particularly important for these outcomes, pointing to possible proximal mechanisms in that context, such as unemployment, perceptions of social injustice and legal cynicism, organised crime, and drug trafficking.

Author

• Joseph Murray, Human Development and Violence Research Centre, Federal University of Pelotas