Another Chance – A multi-site realist randomized controlled trial evaluation of a focused deterrence intervention in England

• In Event: Methodologies - Advances in Evaluative Research

Abstract

This paper will describe the protocol for the largest, and first ever, randomized controlled trial of a Focused Deterrence Program in the United Kingdom.
Focused deterrence interventions are believed to be effective in reducing violence among groups by increasing the severity, certainty, and swiftness of punishment, providing support in desistance from offending, and vocalizing anti-violence community norms. Focused deterrence is regarded as one of the most effective strategies for reducing serious violence, although the literature is predominantly based on weak and under-powered study designs, where interventions target groups committing serious firearm violence in urban centers in response to extreme levels of violence. The methodological limitations of these studies leave the internal and external validity of focused deterrence in doubt.
To this end, this paper will present the protocol for a realist randomized controlled trial evaluating seven focused deterrence interventions in five cities in England. The study consists of summative and formative aspects, with the former being a multi-centered, two-arm randomized controlled trial, and the latter a realist evaluation of the delivery and fidelity of the program combined with a longitudinal qualitative account of the intervention experience. This will be done through semi-structured interviews, observations, and surveys with program participants and, where relevant, program delivery team and stakeholders. Finally, to frame our understanding of the intervention mechanism, this study uses context-mechanism-outcome configurations, which will be summarized in this paper.
Overall, this paper will reflect on developing the study protocol and setting up this multi-year, multi-site study. In so doing, it will demonstrate the limitations of the existing violence prevention evaluations and make a case for a multi-site collaboration to advance the international violence prevention evidence base.

Authors

• Tia Simanovic, University of Hull

• Iain Brennan, University of Hull

• Alex Sutherland, Alex Sutherland

• Paul McFarlane, University College London

• William Graham, University of Abertay