Geographic and demographic patterning in human trafficking victimisation

• In Event: Complex systems, spatial and social networks underpinning human trafficking, people smuggling and labour migration

Abstract

Human trafficking (and ‘modern slavery’) covers a wide, varied and ill-defined range of exploitative practices. Although conflating different issues obscures important variation, as prior research has shown. In this study, we sought to examine factors contributing to the changing landscape of trafficking identified in the UK over a ten-year-period, focusing on geographic and demographic patterning and trends. We conducted exploratory data analysis of individual-level data for 26,918 people referred from 2009-19 into the UK’s National Referral Mechanism (NRM): the central system for identifying trafficking and providing victims some support. Our results highlight the shifting landscape of trafficking identified in the UK over the decade, with marked increases in referrals and major changes in their composition. The effects of key policy changes are evident. Victimisation concentrates heavily, with four countries constituting half of all referrals when accounting for population size. Exploitation type and sub-type vary markedly by nationality, gender, age and exploitation location. Our analysis emphasises the complexity of trafficking, and importance of disaggregation. The results add weight to both situational theories of crime, and complex systems thinking around human trafficking and anti-trafficking. We argue that analysis and intervention should be more responsive to geographical and demographical patterning and prioritise concentrations of harm. More extensive, fine-grained and consistent collection of geospatial data is sorely needed. Despite our dataset’s documented limitations, our analysis shows the value of nuanced, context-sensitive, large-scale analysis. We also discuss how the nature of trafficking/‘modern slavery’ actually identified to the authorities is likely to change considerably, due to ongoing rollbacks on access to protections and an increasingly hostile environment around immigration. That raises important questions for future research and responses. This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, and data access was supported by the National Crime Agency.

Authors

• Matt Ashby, UCL

• Ella Cockbain, UCL

• Kate Bowers, Professor, Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London

• Sheldon X Zhang, University of Massachusetts Lowell