The Role of the New Criminal Code in the Punitive Turn in Hungary: a Matching Analysis of Case-level Data

• In Event: Courts and Sentencing and Penal Decision Making 8. Judicial and Sentencing Policy

Abstract

Hungary took a decisively punitive turn starting from 2010 with the introduction of three strikes rules as well as various other measures aimed at achieving a stricter sentencing practice. The process culminated in the adoption of a new criminal code in 2012. The punitive turn was followed by a rapid increase in prison population in the upcoming years, despite a significant drop in crime rates. We are the first to use case-level sentencing data collected by the National Office for the Judiciary (NOJ) of Hungary to analyze whether the new stricter criminal code directly translated into stricter sentences and thus causing the increase in prison population. We do find evidence of a tendency towards harsher sentences in the period of our analysis (2013-2018), however increases in criminal sanctions are not directly related to the stricter criminal code. Stricter sentencing and the harsher criminal code both characterize the Hungarian punitive turn, but we cannot find a causal link between them.

Authors

• Lili Katalin Mark, Central European University

• Csaba Győry, ELTE University Faculty of Law, Budapest /Institute of Legal Studies, Centre for Social Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

• Balázs Váradi, Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis, ELTE LAW