A Cross-National Analysis of Emotional Temperature and Homicide Rates

• In Event: Quantitative Methods WG. Panel 2. Macro-Level Analysis of Crime & Justice Data

Abstract

There is a large literature on structural covariates of homicide rates, but fewer studies of effects of citizens’ perceptions and sentiments on violence. Yet perceptions of daily life and prevailing sentiment tell us something about societies beyond official measures of economic and demographic structure, and studies show perceptions of state legitimacy, civic engagement, and consumer sentiment are associated with crime rates. Research also suggests collective emotions are associated with population-level outcomes like voting decisions, civil unrest, and prevalence of depression and anxiety. We study effects of emotional temperature – a snapshot of citizens’ experiences – on national homicide rates. Our unit of analysis was the nation-year, 2015-2020. We obtained homicide data from World Health Organization’s Mortality Database. We gauged emotional temperature using the Gallup Global Emotions report. The survey measures positive experiences with questions about rest, respectful treatment, smiling or laughing, learning or doing something interesting, and enjoyment. It measures negative experiences with questions about physical pain, worry, sadness, stress, and anger. We estimate separate effects for positive and negative experiences with pooled cross-sectional models, using dummy variables for year and nation fixed effects and controlling for typical structural covariates. Results reveal no association with total or female homicide rates of positive or negative emotions, but suggest that for males as positive experiences icrease in a nation its homicide rate declines.

Authors

• William Alex Pridemore, Department of Sociology, University of Georgia

• Meghan L. Rogers, University of Iowa