Climate Change and Political Violence: The Impact of Rising Sea Temperature on the Security of 108 Coastal Nations

• In Event: EXTR8 Extremism in times of uncertainty

Abstract

Environmental change assessments suggest that the impact of anthropogenic climate change will increase in intensity and frequency, leading to climate disasters such as extreme weather, famine, drought, rising sea levels, water scarcity, and glacial retreat reaching unprecedented extremes. Although researchers have begun to link climate change to a variety of violent and criminal outcomes, few researchers to date have studied the impact of global warming on terrorism and political violence. We argue that climate change may exacerbate strains rooted in religious, political or socioeconomic frustrations and lead to violence through direct (physiological and/or psychological factors and resource scarcity) and indirect (economic output and migration) pathways. We measure the impact of a specific type of climate change—rising sea temperature (SST)—on terrorism and political violence by analyzing geocoded events recorded for the past 30 years in databases on terrorism (Global Terrorism Database) and Armed Conflict and Location Data (ACLED). Our goal is to develop evidence-based models of the effects of climate change on terrorism and political violence. If we can better understand the link between SST and political violence, we will be able to estimate more accurately the severity and nature of future threats and provide policy recommendations for the most effective responses. Our multivariate analysis shows that rising SST is systematically related to increases in terrorism and political violence among the world’s 108 coastal countries. We explore the implications of the results for theory, policy and future research.

Authors

• Gary LaFree, University of Maryland

• Bo Jiang, University of Macau

• Madisen Placzkowski, University of Maryland