Recidivism among convicted terrorists: A survival analysis based on Belgian Central Criminal Records

• In Event: EXTR7 Crime-terror nexus and terrorist networks

Abstract

Several individuals with previous terrorism convictions have been involved in recent violent offenses, leading to casualties in European cities (e.g., Paris, 2023). These incidents have raised public and political concerns about the risk of new terrorist acts and reoffending within this population. However, scientific research on this topic remains limited, leaving room for misrepresentations and unfounded fears.

Drawing on national conviction data for people convicted of terrorism in Belgium between 2006 and 2020 (N=463), our study aimed to: 1°) Describe the characteristics of this population (demographics, criminal careers); 2°) Quantify figures related to the recidivism (e.g., prevalence, time to recidivism, type of offense); 3°) Investigate the time to recidivism and factors influencing it through a survival analysis including Cox’ proportional hazard models.

Findings show that the majority of the offenders were male and affiliated with a terrorist group. Half of them had prior convictions, generally within a narrow range of offenses. General recidivism prevalence was low (10%), and reconviction for terrorism was extremely rare (1%; n=5). Survival analysis on general recidivism revealed that the criminal history, and the number of prior convictions in particular, influence the time to recidivism.

Impacts of the methodological choices, limitations of the study and research perspectives are presented.

Authors

• Michaël Vande Velde, INCC-Institut National de Criminalistique et de Criminologie

• Benjamin Mine, INCC - Institut National de Criminalistique et de Criminologie

• Eric Maes, INCC - Institut National de Criminalistique et de Criminologie

• Patrick Jeuniaux, INCC - Institut National de Criminalistique et de Criminologie

• Luc Robert, INCC - Institut National de Criminalistique et de Criminologie